2013/10/25 に公開
Abstract
Shinzo Abe became the 90th prime minister of Japan in December 2012
The core elements of his economic strategy - known as Abenomics - are an aggressive monetary policy, a proactive fiscal policy and an economic growth strategy
Japan has had a zero interest rate policy for over a decade, asleep much longer than US or EU post GFC. The Nikkei 225 had a post war peak in 1989 & today trades at 14, 484 index points, 1/3 of it's 1989 highs.
The Japanese yen has devalued by over 25% since Abe's election (vs USD)
We have invited subject matter experts to tell us what exactly is going on & if Japan will wake up or continue to deflate for the forseeable future.
Background
In the later half of the 1990s, Japan entered a state of mild deflation. However, far from being short-lived, it has developed into a chronic problem that continues to plague the Japanese economy today. As a result of deflation, Japan entered an era of economic stagnation that everyone has come to associate it with. A quick overview of the specific factors derailing Japan's growth reveals the complexity of the issue at hand. They include factors such as weak inflation expectations, a negative output gap, structural issues such an ageing and shrinking population and increasing competitiveness of her Asian neighbours.
Abenomics is a set of economic policies proposed by the newly elected president, Shinzo Abe to jump start the economy and steer it out of deflation. Its main thrusts are known as the 3 arrows of Abenomics, namely a massive fiscal stimulus, a more aggressive monetary expansion and a list of structural reforms to boost Japan's competitiveness. A prominent feature is the scale of the policies, such as the proposed doubling of the monetary base in 2 years which leads people to wonder whether this time would really be different compared to past attempts. At the moment, developments are mostly positive. Most noticeably, the Japanese Yen has declined against major currencies and the Japanese stock market is one of the best performing markets this year.
However, there is also extreme volatility as seen by the sharp adjustments in mid-June, proving that Abenomics is far from a finished article and that investors are continuing to scrutinize every new develop to shape or reshape their expectations. Now, following the successful implementation of the first 2 arrows, people are anticipating whether the 3rd arrow would be close to its target too. Japan needs to push through structural reforms as the first 2 arrows cannot be a sustainable measure to growth. In addition, there is also the additional spectre of how other countries will react to Japan. Although the IMF has been largely supportive of Japan's new policies, on the other hand, export-oriented countries that compete with Japan have also voiced their discomfort about the decreasing value of the Yen.
Join us and our panellists to explore the dynamics of Abenomics in greater detail and to walk away from the debate with a greater knowledge about the complexities of the issues at hand.
Panelists
Lucinda Downing, Multiasset Investment Manager at Aon Hewitt
Claire Meier, Senior Analyst, International Fixed Income at Northern Trust
Claire Jones, Economics Reporter, Financial Times (Moderator)
Shinzo Abe became the 90th prime minister of Japan in December 2012
The core elements of his economic strategy - known as Abenomics - are an aggressive monetary policy, a proactive fiscal policy and an economic growth strategy
Japan has had a zero interest rate policy for over a decade, asleep much longer than US or EU post GFC. The Nikkei 225 had a post war peak in 1989 & today trades at 14, 484 index points, 1/3 of it's 1989 highs.
The Japanese yen has devalued by over 25% since Abe's election (vs USD)
We have invited subject matter experts to tell us what exactly is going on & if Japan will wake up or continue to deflate for the forseeable future.
Background
In the later half of the 1990s, Japan entered a state of mild deflation. However, far from being short-lived, it has developed into a chronic problem that continues to plague the Japanese economy today. As a result of deflation, Japan entered an era of economic stagnation that everyone has come to associate it with. A quick overview of the specific factors derailing Japan's growth reveals the complexity of the issue at hand. They include factors such as weak inflation expectations, a negative output gap, structural issues such an ageing and shrinking population and increasing competitiveness of her Asian neighbours.
Abenomics is a set of economic policies proposed by the newly elected president, Shinzo Abe to jump start the economy and steer it out of deflation. Its main thrusts are known as the 3 arrows of Abenomics, namely a massive fiscal stimulus, a more aggressive monetary expansion and a list of structural reforms to boost Japan's competitiveness. A prominent feature is the scale of the policies, such as the proposed doubling of the monetary base in 2 years which leads people to wonder whether this time would really be different compared to past attempts. At the moment, developments are mostly positive. Most noticeably, the Japanese Yen has declined against major currencies and the Japanese stock market is one of the best performing markets this year.
However, there is also extreme volatility as seen by the sharp adjustments in mid-June, proving that Abenomics is far from a finished article and that investors are continuing to scrutinize every new develop to shape or reshape their expectations. Now, following the successful implementation of the first 2 arrows, people are anticipating whether the 3rd arrow would be close to its target too. Japan needs to push through structural reforms as the first 2 arrows cannot be a sustainable measure to growth. In addition, there is also the additional spectre of how other countries will react to Japan. Although the IMF has been largely supportive of Japan's new policies, on the other hand, export-oriented countries that compete with Japan have also voiced their discomfort about the decreasing value of the Yen.
Join us and our panellists to explore the dynamics of Abenomics in greater detail and to walk away from the debate with a greater knowledge about the complexities of the issues at hand.
Panelists
Lucinda Downing, Multiasset Investment Manager at Aon Hewitt
Claire Meier, Senior Analyst, International Fixed Income at Northern Trust
Claire Jones, Economics Reporter, Financial Times (Moderator)
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