2013年5月5日日曜日

Nankai Trough could be the place of the next mega-earthquake with dangerous time interval 2013 – 2014.

http://alexeylyubushin.narod.ru/EGU_2013_Extended_Poster_Lyubushin.pdf

Spots of Seismic Danger Extracted
by Properties of Low-Frequency
Seismic Noise
Alexey Lyubushin

Institute of Physics of the Earth, Moscow
European Geosciences Union General Assembly,
Vienna, 07 – 12 April 2013, session NH4.1/SM3.4




Geophysical Research Abstracts
Vol. 15, EGU2013-1614-1, 2013
EGU General Assembly 2013
© Author(s) 2013. CC Attribution 3.0 License.

Spots of Seismic Danger Extracted by Properties of Low-Frequency
Seismic Noise

http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2013/EGU2013-1614-1.pdf

Alexey Lyubushin

Institute of Physics of the Earth, Moscow, Russian Federation (lyubushin@yandex.ru)

A new method of seismic danger estimate is presented which is based on using properties of low-frequency seismic noise from broadband networks. Two statistics of noise waveforms are considered: multi-fractal singularity spectrum support width D and minimum normalized entropy En of squared orthogonal wavelet coefficients. The maps of D and En are plotted in the moving time window. Let us call the regions extracted by low values of D and high values of En as "spots of seismic danger" - SSD. Mean values of D and En are strongly anti-correlated - that is why statistics D and En extract the same SSD. Nevertheless their mutual considering is expedient because these parameters are based on different approaches.

The physical mechanism which underlies the method is consolidation of small blocks of the Earth’s crust into the large one before the strong earthquake. This effect has a consequence that seismic noise does not include spikes which are connected with mutual movements of small blocks. The absence of irregular spikes in the noise follows the decreasing of D and increasing of entropy En. The stability in space and size of the SSD provides estimates of the place and energy of the probable future earthquake. The increasing or decreasing of SSD size and minimum or maximum values of D and En within SSD allows estimate the trend of seismic danger.

The method is illustrating by the analysis of seismic noise from broadband seismic network F-net in Japan [1-5]. Statistically significant decreasing of D allowed a hypothesis about approaching Japan to a future seismic catastrophe to be formulated at the middle of 2008. The peculiarities of correlation coefficient estimate within 1 year time window between median values of D and generalized Hurst exponent allowed to make a decision that starting from July of 2010 Japan come to the state of waiting strong earthquake [3]. The method extracted a huge SSD near Japan which includes the region of future Tohoku mega-earthquake and the region of Nankai Trough.

The analysis of seismic noise after March 2011 indicates increasing of probability of the 2nd mega-earthquake starting from the middle of 2013 within the region of Nankai Trough which remains to be SSD.

References
1. Lyubushin A. Multifractal Parameters of Low-Frequency Microseisms // V. de Rubeis et al. (eds.), Synchronization and Triggering: from Fracture to Earthquake Processes, GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences 1,
DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-12300-9_15, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2010, 388p., Chapter 15, pp.253-272.
http://www.springerlink.com/content/hj2l211577533261/

2. Lyubushin A.A. Synchronization of multifractal parameters of regional and global low-frequency microseisms
– European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2010, Vienna, 02-07 of May, 2010, Geophysical Research
Abstracts, Vol. 12, EGU2010-696, 2010.
http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2010/EGU2010-696.pdf

3. Lyubushin A.A. Synchronization phenomena of low-frequency microseisms. European Seismological Commission,
32nd General Assembly, September 06-10, 2010, Montpelier, France. Book of abstracts, p.124, session ES6.
http://alexeylyubushin.narod.ru/ESC-2010_Book_of_abstracts.pdf

4. Lyubushin A.A. Seismic Catastrophe in Japan on March 11, 2011: Long-Term Prediction on the Basis of
Low-Frequency Microseisms – Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 2011, Vol. 46, No. 8, pp. 904–921.
http://www.springerlink.com/content/kq53j2667024w715/

5. Lyubushin, A. Prognostic properties of low-frequency seismic noise. Natural Science, 4, 659-666.doi:
10.4236/ns.2012.428087.
http://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?paperID=21656




http://www.seismicweather.com/earthquake_prediction/earthquake_time_prediction.php

Squared correlation between mean values of multi-fractal parameters Δα and α* of microseisms from all F-net stations estimated within 1 year moving time window.


 


the Hokkaido earthquake of September
























Fig.1. Right-hand end of moving time window of the length 1 year.

the Hokkaido earthquake of September











Fig.2. Multi-fractal singularity spectrum

F(α) – fractal dimensionality of time moments t which have the same Holder-Lipschitz exponent α, i.e. for which μx(t,δ)~(δ)α when δ→0. α* = argmax F(α) – generalized Hurst exponent.

Conclusions.
During preparing huge seismic catastrophe geological medium become more
“simple” and homogenous. This manifests in the following properties of lowfrequency
microseisms noise waveforms:

1) Multi-fractal singularity spectrum support width Da decreases, i.e. the noise
structure become more simple, “less multi-fractal”.

2) Minimum value of normalized entropy of squared orthogonal wavelet
coefficients increases.

3) According to the results of seismic noise processing from Japan
broadband network F-net the region of Nankai Trough could be the place of
the next mega-earthquake with dangerous time interval 2013 – 2014.


===========================================================

http://alexeylyubushin.narod.ru/Index.htm

Alexey Lyubushin

1971-1977 - Moscow Physical Technical Institute, Department of Aerophysics & Cosmic Investigations.
1977-1984 - Institute of Problems for Mechanics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Research Scientist.
1984-now - Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Chief Research Scientist.
1997-now - also Professor of the Department of Mathematics of Russian State Geological Prospecting University.

Ph.D., 1981, in theoretical mechanics (numerical methods of optimal control),
Dr.Sci., 1996, in geophysics (applying multidimensional statistics to monitoring),

Address:
Institute of the Physics of the Earth,
Russian Academy of Sciences,
Bol'shaya Gruzinskya, 10,
Moscow, 123995.
Fax: +7(499)766-26-54
Phone: +7(499)254-23-50
E-mail: lyubushin@yandex.ru, lyubushin@hotbox.ru, lyubushin@pochta.ru

Research interests: multidimensional time series analysis; wavelet analysis;
applying of multidimensional statistics to geophysical monitoring and earthquake prediction;
seismic hazard assessment, geostatistics.

The whole number of publications: 170.
You can download following papers, posters, presentations and books in pdf-format and some software within zip-files:

Great Japan Earthquake M=9.0, 2011.03.11, prediction by microseismic noise properties:

  • " Prediction of Great Japan Earthquake 11 March of 2011 by analysis of microseismic noise (RUS)"
  • " Prediction of Great Japan Earthquake 11 March of 2011 by analysis of microseismic noise"
  • " Does Japan approach great earthquake (the question since middle of 2008)? Yes, this prediction was true (after 11 of March 2011)."
  • " EGU-2010, 02-07 May, Vienna, Extended Poster: Synchronization of parameters of low-frequency microseisms"
  • " Synchronization phenomena of low-frequency microseisms. European Seismological Commission, 32nd General Assembly, September 06-10, 2010, Montpelier, France. Book of abstracts, p.124, session ES6"
  • " Trends and Rhythms of Synchronization of Low-Frequency Microseisms Multifractal Properties"
  • " Trends and Rhythms of Synchronization of Low-Frequency Microseisms Multifractal Properties (RUS)"
  • " The Statistics of the Time Segments of LowFrequency Microseisms: Trends and Synchronization"
  • " The Statistics of the Time Segments of LowFrequency Microseisms: Trends and Synchronization (RUS)"
  • " Cluster Analysis of Low-Frequency Microseismic Noise"
  • " Cluster Analysis of Low-Frequency Microseismic Noise (RUS)"
  • " Seismic Catastrophe in Japan on March 11, 2011: Long-Term Prediction on the Basis of Low-Frequency Microseisms"
  • " Seismic Catastrophe in Japan on March 11, 2011: Long-Term Prediction on the Basis of Low-Frequency Microseisms (RUS)"
  • " Seismic noise analysis provides estimates of magnitude, time and place of seismic catastrophe in Japan at 11 March 2011 (RUS)"
  • " IUGG-2011, 27 Jun - 08 Jul, Melbourne, Extended Poster: Japan Seismic Catastrophe 11 of March 2011. Long-term prediction by microseismic noise properties."
  • " Russian TV-channel "Top Secret". "Echo of Japanese tragedy". Record at 25 March 2011" Seismic Noise at the vicinity of Japan Islands after March 11, 2011: the Danger of the Next Mega-Earthquake near Tokyo:
  • " AGU-2011, 05-09 Dec, San Francisco, Poster: Prediction of Tohoku Seismic Catastrophe by microseismic noise multi-fractal properties."
  • " Report at IPE RAS, Moscow, 09.02.2012: Loss of multifractality of seismic noise at Japan islands (RUS)"
  • " Prognostic properties of low-frequency seismic noise. Natural Science, 4, 659-666.doi: 10.4236/ns.2012.428087."
  • " Prediction of Great Japan Earthquake (RUS) - Russian "Nature", 2012, No.8"
  • " Mapping the Properties of Low-Frequency Microseisms for Seismic Hazard Assessment"
  • " Mapping the Properties of Low-Frequency Microseisms for Seismic Hazard Assessment (RUS)"
  • " Report at IPE RAS, Moscow, 21.03.2013: Two years after Tohoku (RUS)"
  • " EGU-2013, 07-12 April, Vienna, Extended Poster: Spots of Seismic Danger Extracted by Properties of Low-Frequency Seismic Noise" Low Frequency Microseismic Background Noise Analysis:
  • " MicroSeismic Oscillations before Strong Earthquakes"
  • " Microseismic Impulses as Earthquake Precursors"
  • " Multifractal Measures of Synchronization of Microseismic Oscillations in a Minute Range of Periods"
  • " Microseismic Anomalies before the Sumatra Earthquake of December 26, 2004"
  • " Using modern seismological data to reveal earthquake precursors"
  • " Asymmetrical Pulses, the Periodicity and Synchronization of Low Frequency Microseisms"
  • " Asymmetrical Pulses, the Periodicity and Synchronization of Low Frequency Microseisms (RUS)"
  • " Microseismic Noise in the Low Frequency Range: Properties and Possible Prognostic Features"
  • " Microseismic Noise in the Low Frequency Range: Properties and Possible Prognostic Features (RUS)"
  • " Maps of Linear Synchroniation for the Properties of Global Low-Frequency Seismic Noise (RUS)" Analysis of Monitoring Time Series in the Physics of the Solid Earth:
  • " Response Function Evolution from Atmospheric Pressure to Underground Water Level (isle Shikotan)"
  • " Spectral Matrices of Geochemical Time Series, Kamchatka"
  • " Classification of States of Monitoring Systems"
  • " Coherence Analysis of Tidal Underground Water Level Variations"
  • " Canonical Coherences in the Problems of Geophysical Monitoring"
  • " Fourier Aggregated Signal of Multiple Time Series"
  • " Recognition of Slow Events in an Aseismic Region"
  • " Wavelet Aggregated Signal of Multiple Time Series for Earthquake Prediction"
  • " Wavelet Analysis of Geophysical Monitoring Multiple Time Series"
  • " Robust Wavelet Aggregated Signal of Multiple Time Series"
  • " Multiple Wavelet Analysis of Electrotelluric Time Series" Analysis of Seismic Catalogs:
  • " Seismic Regimes Interaction Analysis by Influence Matrices Method"
  • " Seismicity Periodicity"
  • " Seismicity Periodicity in Moving Time Window"
  • " Time-Frequency Analysis of Seismicity"
  • " Precursor of Sumatra, 26.12.2004, M=9, Earthquake"
  • " Multidimensional Wavelet Analysis of Seismicity" Analysis of Monitoring Time Series in the Hydrology, Meteorology, Oceanography and Climate:
  • " Coherence measures of rivers runoff time series"
  • " Canonical Coherences of Caspian Sea Level Variations"
  • " Multiple Spectral Analysis of Caspian Sea Level Variations"
  • " Wavelet-Based Robust Coherence Measures Analysis of Sea Level and Wind"
  • " Statistical Methods for River Runoff Prediction"
  • " Long WTMM-Chains of Rivers Runoff Time Series"
  • " Long WTMM-Chains of Rivers Runoff Time Series (RUS)"
  • " Fuel Consumption and Global dT"
  • " Short Term Global dT Prediction Using 60-70 Years Periodicity"
  • " Cyclic climate variations: data analysis, scenario, prediction (RUS)" Analysis of 3C Seismic Records:
  • " Wavelet-Based 3C Seismic Records Classification"
  • " Wavelet-Packet Method for P and S-waves arrival time detection"
  • " Wavelet-Packet Method for P and S-waves arrival time detection (RUS)" Seismic Hazard Estimates:
  • " Bayesian Approach to Seismic Hazard Estimation"
  • " Seismic Hazard Bayesian Estimates in Circum-Pacific Belt"
  • " Bayesian Estimates of Seismic Hazard"
  • " Map of seismic hazard of India using Bayesian approach" Geostatistics:
  • " Anisotropic 2D Kernels" Books:
  • " Lyubushin A.A. Geophysical Monitoring Data Analysis (RUS)"
  • " Klyashtorin L.B., Lyubushin A.A. Cyclic Climate Changes and Fish Productivity (RUS)."
  • " Klyashtorin L.B., Lyubushin A.A. Cyclic Climate Changes and Fish Productivity" Other:
  • " Wavelet-Based Robust Coherence Measures of Multiple Time Series"
  • " Software for Point Processes Periodicity Detecting and Scalar Time Series Data Mining"
  • " Software for Point Processes Periodicity Detecting and Scalar Time Series Data Mining (in Russian)"
  • " Manual for program of multidimensional compensation (in Russian)" Exe-file of the program PPPeriod for detecting hidden periodicities within point process:
  • " Zip-file Program_PPPeriod.zip" Exe-file of the program Spectra_Analyzer for Scalar Time Series Data Mining with all necessary DLLs:
  • " Zip-file SpAn.zip" Software for Monitoring Systems:
  • " General Description (in Russian)"
  • Practical Course for Multidimensional Time Series Analysis (in Russian)"
     
  • Point Processes Analysis: Periodicities and Mutual Influences (in Russian)"
     
  • Manual for interactive program for scalar signals properties data mining (in Russian)"
  • " Manual for interactive program for scalar signals properties data mining (in English)"
  • " Program for scalar signals properties data mining (within zip-file)"
     
  • Manual for the program for detecting periodic components within intensity of point processes (in Russian)"
  • " Manual for the program for detecting periodic components within intensity of point processes (in English)"
  • " Program for detecting periodic components within intensity of point processes (within zip-file)"
     
  • Manual for the program for detecting periodic components of intensity of point processes in a moving event window (in Russian)"
  • " Program for detecting periodic components of intensity of point processes in a moving event window (within zip-file)"
     
  • Manual for the program of estimating Poissonian, self-exciting & mutual intensity shares for 2 point processes (in Russian)"
  • " Program of estimating Poissonian, self-exciting & mutual intensity shares for 2 point processes (within zip-file)"
     
  • Manual for the programs of multidimensional compensation and cross-spectral analysis (in Russian)"
  • " Programs of multidimensional compensation and cross-spectral analysis (within zip-file)"
     
  • Manual for the auxiliary program for making list of filenames for further joint processing (in Russian)"
  • " Auxiliary program for making list of filenames for further joint processing (within zip-file)"
     
  • Manual for the program of estimating multidimensional spectral coherence measure within moving time window (in Russian)"
  • " Program of estimating multidimensional spectral coherence measure within moving time window (within zip-file)"

  • Manual for the program of estimating Fourier-aggregated signal of multidimensional time series (in Russian)"
  • " Program of estimating Fourier-aggregated signal of multidimensional time series (within zip-file)"
  • Manual for the programs of estimating multidimensional wavelet-based coherence measures within moving time window (in Russian)"
  • " Program of estimating multidimensional wavelet-based coherence measures within moving time window (within zip-file)"
     
  • Manual for the programs of estimating wavelet-aggregated signal of multidimensional time series (in Russian)"
  • " Programs of estimating wavelet-aggregated signal of multidimensional time series (within zip-file)"
  • Manual for the program of orthogonal wavelet-based estimating of spectral and Hurst exponents within moving time window (in Russian)"
  • " Programs of orthogonal wavelet-based estimating of spectral and Hurst exponents within moving time window (within zip-file)"
  • Manual for the program of estimating multifractal singularity spectra parameters within moving time window (in Russian)"
  • " Programs of estimating multifractal singularity spectra parameters within moving time window (within zip-file)"






































































































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